Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

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teflor the ranger
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Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby teflor the ranger » Mon May 05, 2008 5:51 pm

Quick word of advice for the Torilites that drive.

- Locking Fuel Caps, http://www.stant.com/brochure.cfm?broch ... ion_id=170
- In cities, park vehicles in monitored garages where available, otherwise well lit areas with the gas cap side facing the street.
- Monitor COLD, UNDRIVEN tire pressure, add air when necessary (check user manual for suggested pressure).
- Swap out your air filter every four oil changes or so (check user manual for suggested interval).
- Use gas stations that require pre-payment, because then you won't be paying for someone else's drive-offs.
- Pump gas at night or early in the morning. (Where it is safe to do so!)
- Make absolutely certain that your gas cap is on tight.

- LAY OFF THE GAS PEDAL AND ACCELERATE GENTLY. A vehicle that gets 28 miles to the gallon on the highway only gets 4 miles to the gallon on a racetrack! Don't accelerate aggressively!

- Take care at gas stations like you would using an ATM! People will steal gas as it gets more expensive!
- Combine trips, cold-starting a car can burn a lot of gas.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Dalar » Tue May 06, 2008 11:09 pm

Huh? All I see is: This post was made by teflor the ranger who is currently on your ignore list. Display this post.

-- Dalar, if you are interested in something somebody on your ignore list posts, remove the ignore so you can read it. Don't continually point out that you are ignoring them. We have received several complaints about this exact thing.

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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Kifle » Tue May 06, 2008 11:46 pm

Dalar wrote:Huh? All I see is: This post was made by teflor the ranger who is currently on your ignore list. Display this post.


I guess that means teflor is one of the problems with rising fuel costs.

--Kifle, if you insist on having someone on your ignore list, by all means, ignore them and quit trying to insult them.

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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Teyaha » Tue May 06, 2008 11:59 pm

our mcdonald's has seen a 48% increase in transportation and food costs since january 2006. we are now forced to sell many items below cost (everything but ice cream cones and small soda's on the $1 menu is sold as a substantial loss considering people generally buy them 2-12 at a time) to keep our franchise license

at the same time though, we are having a banner year sales wise. profits will probably suck, but the crappy economy has made a $1 double cheeseburger cheaper than buying the same materials from a grocery store and making it yourself
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby teflor the ranger » Wed May 07, 2008 1:34 am

Teyaha wrote:our mcdonald's has seen a 48% increase in transportation and food costs since january 2006. we are now forced to sell many items below cost (everything but ice cream cones and small soda's on the $1 menu is sold as a substantial loss considering people generally buy them 2-12 at a time) to keep our franchise license

at the same time though, we are having a banner year sales wise. profits will probably suck, but the crappy economy has made a $1 double cheeseburger cheaper than buying the same materials from a grocery store and making it yourself


Transportation costs are hard to adapt to, especially considering that most corporations already run transportation as efficiently as possible. There's not many other places to squeeze besides profit, rent, or employees. For McDonalds, I think it is time for them to consider either reducing their franchise fees or at least capping them for a term to help franchise owners plot for the future.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Corth » Wed May 07, 2008 2:20 am

I don't drive very much (work out of the house for the most part), and my wife has been out of work since late October on maternity leave, so the gasoline prices haven't hit me very hard. However, I really have noticed quite an increase in my weekly supermarket bill over the past couple of years. Luckily I hedged against this by purchasing an ETF a few months ago that tracks agricultural commodity prices. So I gain in my commodity investment as I lose at the supermarket. The same thing can be done for oil or gasoline. If I commuted a lot of miles I would probably consider purchasing some sort of broad energy ETF as a hedge.

I am very much in favor of being proactive about managing one's personal risk. The tools are out there for anyone to use. Blathering idiocy about 'big oil' and its 'excess profits' is just pandering for the masses. The only thing that determines the price of an object is supply and demand. Right now, there simply is not enough oil to meet demand. If the market doesn't allocate who gets the oil, then government will get to decide. I am sure they will do a very efficient job of figuring out who can make better use of that limited resource (those with government connections) and thus should get priority over others. *rolls eyes*
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth

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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Sarvis » Wed May 07, 2008 2:23 am

Corth wrote:The only thing that determines the price of an object is supply and demand... *rolls eyes*



Fixed that for you.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Corth » Wed May 07, 2008 2:43 am

Ok Sarvis. Explain to me how in your world prices are determined in a manner beside supply and demand.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Corth » Wed May 07, 2008 2:48 am

Well, there is one thing Sarvis can say that would be a good answer. He could say that the government can coerce people and companies into selling objects for less than the market would bare. Of course, he would probably not emphasize the fact that if government makes you sell objects below the price that the market will bare, you are guaranteed to have shortages of that object.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Kifle » Wed May 07, 2008 2:53 am

Corth wrote:Ok Sarvis. Explain to me how in your world prices are determined in a manner beside supply and demand.


Not to say this is what is happening, but monopolies undermine supply and demand price determinations. With that being said, though, I think I should qualify the statement a bit more. While I think you are mostly correct in your analysis, Corth, I think you put way too much stock into supply/demand and the invisible hand of the market. When the world is so dependant on a product (water, oil, energy in general), supply and demand are no longer the only price-determining factors -- which I think you'd have to admit is easily observable with the current price of gasoline at the pump contrasted against the profit levels of major oil companies.

I actually read an almost finished research project from a philosophy/economics professor at carbondale (SIU) that was an interesting take on Adam Smith and the wealth of nations. I think you should read it. I'll see if I can get a copy through e-mail from the department head here (he was a visiting lecturer).
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Corth » Wed May 07, 2008 3:33 am

Kifle,

I don't see how supply and demand determining prices has anything to do with profits.

Let me put it this way. Say a new form of energy named FAKALINE is discovered. It is pumped out of the ground similar to oil, and without even refining it you can get between 5000 and 7500 miles per gallon from the stuff. Just a small modification to your engine and you can fill up once and not have to fill up again for a decade.

Now imagine, the only source of FAKALINE in the world is my backyard. Its oozing with the stuff. I have a very modern pump (I can only fit one), which is capable of pumping out about 10,000 gallons of FAKALINE per day. However, special precautions must be taken in pumping it, so it costs me $150 per gallon to bring it out of the ground and to my loading dock.

My main competition in marketing FAKALINE would be gasoline. My stuff is about 350 times more effective than gasoline. Of course, I would try to sell the 10,000 gallons per day for as much as possible. If Sarvis was willing to give me $900 per gallon, and Ragorn was willing to give me $950 per gallon, I would sell to Ragorn. Ultimately, I know that it would sell for something. The person or company that paid me the most would get it.

And why should it be any other way? Perhaps Ragorn has a special use for FAKALINE which makes it a lot more useful to him than gasoline. Maybe for Sarvis, gasoline and FAKALINE are basically interchangable. Thus, my product is more valuable to Ragorn so he is willing to outbid Sarvis. By selling to the highest bidder, a societal goal is being accomplished insofar as a scarce resource is being allocated towards its most efficient purpose.

Now lets talk about profit. I would be making an enormous amount of money. Ragorn backs his fuel trucks up to my loading dock and carts all the stuff away. After my expenses, I am making $8,000,000 per day. An ENORMOUS profit.

So here is the question. Am I somehow doing wrong by Ragorn? Am I getting over on him in any way by making so much money off of him? I would strongly argue that I am not. I am not putting a gun to his head to rob him of his money. He wants the FAKALINE from me and is happy to pay more than the other guy. So no, I do not think I am doing anything immoral by making an enormous profit off of Ragorn or my other customers who are willing to pay what the market will bare.

Now lets say that the government stepped in and took over my operation on national security grounds. The government would then have options. It could sell the FAKALINE on the open market to Ragorn, who is the highest bidder (no change in net profits.. however the government receives the profit, not me). Or perhaps it would divert the FAKALINE for its own use, and sell the rest to Ragorn (inefficient allocation of the resource.. the government was not the highest bidder when I owned the FAKALINE, Ragorn should be getting all of the resource because its more valuable for his use than it is for the government's use). Or perhaps Sarvis, who is the nephew of President Bush (hah!), gets a lucrative government contract to buy the FAKALINE for $600 per gallon, and then he can resell it or use it himself (Profits are redistributed from me to the government and Sarvis - Cronyism and no decrease in net profits). Finally, the government might decide to ration the FAKALINE by giving the general public a small amount every year at a reduced price or free (inefficent use of the resource - the product is more valuable to Ragorn than to anyone else, but he can't get it, or if he purchases it from the people receiving the ration, then net profit doesn't change but there is redistribution of income from me to the ration receivers and government).

None of those alternatives creates any net benefit to society. Either the resource is not being allocated towards its most efficient use, or if it is, the profits are still being made, but just by other people and entities.

Ok, so then what if government tells me I can continue owning the FAKALINE but that FAKALINE cannot be sold for more than $400 per gallon. Well, now FAKALINE is so cheap that it makes sense for everyone to buy it. But I only have 10,000 gallons per day. So what do i do? I tell people to line up, and I sell it at $400 per gallon, first come first serve. This, of course, is an inefficent allocation of the resource, since its obvious that FAKALINE is more valuable to Ragorn than anyone else. The government price control has created a SHORTAGE. Ragorn cannot get a sufficient amount of FAKALINE even though his use is more efficient than everyone elses.

It wouldn't happen, but say for some reason government told me that I can continue owning and selling the FAKALINE, but I cannot sell it for less than $2,000 per gallon. At this point I would likely have a lot of FAKALINE and few customers. At that price, even for Ragorn, it makes more sense just to use gasoline. With this particular type of price control, government has created a GLUT of FAKALINE.

Final possibility. The government makes a law that FAKALINE cannot be sold for more than $140 per gallon. I shut down my pump and twiddle my thumbs.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Kifle » Wed May 07, 2008 4:46 am

Oh good lord, can you summarize that? Not sure I care enough about the topic to respond even if I did read it.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Corth » Wed May 07, 2008 4:56 am

Sure. Free market = good. Price controls = bad.

Better?

A freaking summary for the guy who is going to sit around in some dank basement for years translating freaking schopenhaur. Feh :)
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Ragorn » Wed May 07, 2008 5:08 am

In a market vacuum, supply and demand are fine.

When governmental forces artificially influence supply in order to drive prices up, by say... reducing refining rate or increasing tariffs on imported oil... then the government is manipulating prices. Manipulating prices = bad. Sometimes we do it, sometimes OPEC does it. Or are you going to tell me there's seven times more demand for oil this year than in 2000?
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Teyaha » Wed May 07, 2008 5:35 am

i'm not an economist in any stretch, but all i can say is we sell more $1 sandwiches than anything else. we take a 30 cent net loss on each one.

we have sold far more of these sandwiches this year than this same time last year.

dunno how that all fits into the above arguments of supply vs. demand.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Corth » Wed May 07, 2008 5:52 am

Ragorn wrote:In a market vacuum, supply and demand are fine.

When governmental forces artificially influence supply in order to drive prices up, by say... reducing refining rate or increasing tariffs on imported oil... then the government is manipulating prices. Manipulating prices = bad. Sometimes we do it, sometimes OPEC does it. Or are you going to tell me there's seven times more demand for oil this year than in 2000?


Prices do not necessarily increase at the same rate as demand. They increase based upon the scarcity of the product and how much it is needed (as opposed to say alternative products).

There might only be 10% more demand for oil (hypothetically), but if supply remains the same (or decreases) then some people have to be left out. Prices can increase at a far quicker rate than demand for that reason. You think oil prices that are 7 times higher than a few years ago is a lot? I believe it can go a lot further than that with only a slight increase in demand, decrease in supply, or both. Its a necessary resource and there is only so much of it to go around. Price is just the market's way of allocating who gets it.

If you do some research, you will find that it is likely that for the foreseeable future, supply of oil will decrease every single year from now until the end of civilization. Don't get me wrong. There will always be oil in the ground. Its just that the 'low hanging fruit' has already been picked. The easy to get oil is already gone. Now it gets a lot more difficult and expensive over time to extract it.

At the same time, demand is increasing at a very fast rate. Particularly in China and India.

What does this mean? Clearly, not everyone who wants oil at its current price can get it. The price will have to increase until the point that the less efficient users of the product find an alternative, get more efficient, or go away. Demand destruction. Or perhaps price controls kick in, and less efficient users of the product are allowed to remain less efficient. Big SUV's keep rolling with impunity at 15 MPG.. or at least until the gas station runs out of the stuff.

I sincerely believe that the cost of energy is going to be the biggest long term issue that our generation has to deal with. There is no long term readily available alternative to oil as a transportation fuel at this time. Hydrogen maybe at some point, but that requires an enormous amount of electricity to make, and where does electricity come from? Natural gas and coal, also scarce resources. Solar is not scarce.. and might be a viable way of making enough hydrogen. But that would require a bit of a 'manhattan project' of solar panel creation.. and I believe that the commodities used to make solar panels, such as sillicon, are also scarce.

I fully expect to see gasoline at $10 per gallon within 15 years. Perhaps a lot more if inflation exceeds expectations.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Corth » Wed May 07, 2008 6:08 am

Teyaha wrote:i'm not an economist in any stretch, but all i can say is we sell more $1 sandwiches than anything else. we take a 30 cent net loss on each one.

we have sold far more of these sandwiches this year than this same time last year.

dunno how that all fits into the above arguments of supply vs. demand.


Clearly, McDonalds Corp. and its franchisees are trying to make as much money as possible. Why else should everyone wake up and go to work in the morning if they aren't trying to make money? I have no inside knowledge as to how McDonalds and its Franchisees set prices. I would imagine that if sandwiches are being sold at a loss, they must be a 'loss leader'. You lose 30 cents on the sandwich, and make it back and then some on the coke and the fries. If your franchise still isn't profitable, its time to question whether or not you should be in that particular business.

Supply and demand come into play with respect to alternative options available to consumers. If I want a fast meal, I can go to taco bell, burger king, mcdonalds, white castle, whatever. Fast food is one of the most competitive industries I can think of. There is a certain 'supply' of fast food out there, and a certain amount of demand. If people become more health conscious, perhaps they eat less fast food and you will be forced to lower your prices to attact the remaining customers (less demand). Or if people work longer hours and have less time to cook their own meals, perhaps demand increases and you and the other fast food operators are able to increase the cost of your meals. Or perhaps if there is a bumper wheat crop and the price of buns and tortillas drop (supply increase), you and/or your competitors will lower prices to try and ramp up volume. Or if mad cow disease forces the culling of thousands of cows and beef prices rise (supply decrease), you and your competitors may be forced to increase the price of your burgers. Realistically, millions of different factors determine the supply of your product and the demand from your consumer. Your price is a reflection of those factors.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Vaprak » Wed May 07, 2008 12:17 pm

I haven't put any of this into a spreadsheet and I'm not an accountant or a numbers guy, but here's what I think of rising gas prices:

- Oil is traded globally using the US dollar.
- Oil, when traded in US dollars, is at record highs.
- The US Dollar is worth record lows compared to other global currency.
- Inflation is high, probably around 4%, but much higher in some consumer product segments.
- Demand has not increased by 700% in the US, but globally it may have when you factor in the new economic superpower: China.
- There is currently no economically, socially, or ecologically viable solution to using less foreign oil, yet. This allows OPEC and other nations to affect market prices for oil barrels.
- US Refinery capacity has not increased since the 1970s, both because enviromentalist don't like refineries polluting, and big oil likes big profits(artificial market constraints). This mostly only effects the cost of consumer goods, not of oil itself.

By my estimate if oil started trading in Euros or Yen instead of US Dollars year over year we'd only have seen a 30% increase in price. A small portion of that 30% could be attributed to inflation caused by the Fed's rediculous attempts to correct credit markets. The larger portion of that 30% would be attributed to rising demand from the global economy (ie china/india).

The part that is really killing us for oil/gas prices in the global economy is the other 70% of the increase in cost of oil when it is measured in US dollars: ie the Fed's rediculous attempts to correct credit markets causing the US dollar to become the US peso.

That being said there's basically a few things you can do:
- Hope your employer corrects your salary to account for inflation (hahahaha) so you can afford gas. hahaha.
- Purchase a car that is cheaper to operate, and drive less. Car pool to work.
- Keep on driving your 15 MPG SUV and stop eatting out 10 times a week you fat ass.
- Cry, lots
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Sarvis » Wed May 07, 2008 12:38 pm

Corth, prices are affected by supply and demand but not controlled by it. In some cases the price will even stay the same in spite of high demand/low supply. Take the Nintendo Wii for instance, it is being sold _used_ for $301. Yet Nintendo and actual retailers keep the price at $249.

Clearly there is something other than simple supply & demand going on there. If S&D had the effect you think it does, Nintendo would raise prices. Same thing with the PS3, but in reverse. It collects dust on shelves because Sony isn't adjusting the price downwards to meet the lack of demand (which is amusingly caused largely by the high price!)

Further the demand for any product can and does change by region. One of my friends goes back to the mountains occassionally to visit his relatives, and usually finds several Wii's on the shelf at their local kmart. Demand is lower in that region, so shouldn't the price go down?

Honestly, for 90% of the products American's buy supply is simply not an issue. IF there's a shortage of any given product it's because a company chose to limit supply. That's why we have "limited edition" specials. It's not that a company can't just keep running the factory, it's that they choose not to in order to advertise and inflate demand.

Now, I know we're talking about oil... but frankly if we can't expect a single global corporation like Sony or Nintendo to change it's prices based on S&D, why can we expect a cabal like OPEC to?
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Gormal » Wed May 07, 2008 1:31 pm

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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Ragorn » Wed May 07, 2008 2:45 pm

Corth wrote:If you do some research, you will find that it is likely that for the foreseeable future, supply of oil will decrease every single year from now until the end of civilization. Don't get me wrong. There will always be oil in the ground. Its just that the 'low hanging fruit' has already been picked. The easy to get oil is already gone. Now it gets a lot more difficult and expensive over time to extract it.

Possibly. But unless you're talking Peak Oil (which ends our conversation immediately), this isn't necessarily true. The low hanging fruit is gone, but technology and engineering make advances over time that allow us to reach the deeper wells more easily and cheaper. Besides, this same argument was made during the gas shortage in the 70s, but conditions changed and prices fell.

The issue in the oil market isn't simply supply and demand... political and economic cartels are artificially manipulating prices. You can't deny that OPEC is doing it, even if you aren't willing to concede the fact that our own government sways the scales.

I don't know whether gas will be $2 or $10 ten years from now.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Ragorn » Wed May 07, 2008 2:51 pm

Corth wrote:Clearly, McDonalds Corp. and its franchisees are trying to make as much money as possible. Why else should everyone wake up and go to work in the morning if they aren't trying to make money? I have no inside knowledge as to how McDonalds and its Franchisees set prices. I would imagine that if sandwiches are being sold at a loss, they must be a 'loss leader'. You lose 30 cents on the sandwich, and make it back and then some on the coke and the fries. If your franchise still isn't profitable, its time to question whether or not you should be in that particular business.

McDonalds is actually a pretty fascinating study. McDonalds doesn't sell hamburgers... any chain restaurant can do that, and McD's burgers are near the bottom of the pile. McDonalds doesn't sell burgers, they sell convenience. They sell the ability to drive no more than five minutes out of your way at any given time and purchase a low-cost, acceptably tasty meal without getting out of your car.

When McDonalds evaluates their business approach, very seldom do they seriously consider the quality of their food. The only times in recent memory that McD's has made a significant change in the quality of their food was the decision to use all white meat for McNuggets, and the decision to introduce fruit as a substitution for fries. Most of their business plan involves marketing, selection, price, bundling, and efficiency. I mean hell... how much has McDonalds core product changed in the last ten years? Twenty? Fifty? Specialty food items come and go, and some stick around (like McNuggets). But by and large, McDonalds sells the same product in 2008 that they sold in 1998 and 1968. Same product, probably about the same quality.

But what made McDonalds the real fast food leader wasn't their processes or their food, it was their expansion strategy. McDonalds was Starbucks before Starbucks. There's a common saying that McDonalds isn't a fast food company, they're a real estate company.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Corth » Wed May 07, 2008 3:15 pm

Ragorn,

Yes, I was talking about 'peak oil'. Not sure how that changes or ends the conversation. 'Peak oil' is just a fancy way of describing a circumstance where supply decreases over time. Its by no means certain, but there is evidence to suggest that the world reached its peak oil production at some point in the past 2 or 3 years, and supply has been decreasing ever since. Certainly as the price of oil goes up, it becomes more cost effective to use more expensive means of extracting it. However, we are not talking about any huge production increase.. and to the extent that there is an increase at all, it is predicated on expensive oil.

Such a dynamic would have very dramatic repurcussions. Unless demand decreases at a rate exceeding the decrease in supply, you should expect prices to continue to increase. And as I mentioned before.. price increases could far exceed the rate that supply is diminishing or demand is increasing.
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby jalahin » Wed May 07, 2008 4:07 pm

Ragorn wrote:In a market vacuum, supply and demand are fine.

When governmental forces artificially influence supply in order to drive prices up, by say... reducing refining rate or increasing tariffs on imported oil... then the government is manipulating prices. Manipulating prices = bad. Sometimes we do it, sometimes OPEC does it. Or are you going to tell me there's seven times more demand for oil this year than in 2000?


Not all government manipulation of prices is a bad thing, especially in the context of natural resource consumption. This probably holds the most weight when considered alongside global warming concerns in relation to cars, which are huge "mobile sources" of greenhouse gases. Let me premise this by saying that I know this is not the reason gas prices are high right now, but it might take a little of the price sting away to think about it like this!

Since there has already been a masterful presentation of economic theory by Corth, I'd like to add Coase's problem of the commons to the playing field. The most simplified version of this theory can be explained by imagining a single plot of land owned by a shepard, which is used to feed his flock. The shepard, realizing that his plot of land is a finite resource, uses only as much as he needs, because the "harms" of overuse would result in a quicker depletion of the resource.

Contrast this to a plot of land, commonly held by the public and used by 4 neighboring shepards. Since each shepard realizes full benefit of his use of the land in feeding his livestock, but only incurs 1/4 of the harm, it is in his best interest to use as much of the plot of land as he can, to the exclusion of the other 3 shepards. The shepard has "externalized" his harm because there is nothing to prevent or deter him from this behavior.

This situation can be analogized to the commons that we hold over clean air. To the extent that consumers have complete and unfettered access to gasoline (if the market would naturally provide so), consumers will continue to use gasoline without consideration of the externalities created by its use (global warming, air pollution, etc.). Having the government step in and price adjust, through the use of a gas tax, can reduce these externalities by forcing them back upon the consumer, resulting in moderated use. Further adding to the benefits of government intervention is the effect of motivating consumers to invest in "replacement goods" (alternative forms of transportation here).

I'm not saying that the free market won't suffer from such intervention, and clearly those who drive to work without the ability to use an alternative form of transportation are hit the hardest, but there is some benefit in higher gas prices for those who believe that car pollution is a major contribution to the global warming problem, especially since the EPA has such a hard time regulating this aspect of air pollution.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Ragorn » Wed May 07, 2008 4:09 pm

Corth wrote:Ragorn,

Yes, I was talking about 'peak oil'. Not sure how that changes or ends the conversation.

Because you can't state speculation and cite peak oil as fact. Peak Oil is a theory with even less substantiation than global warming. To use it as the basis for argument ends the conversation, because what's going to happen is we're going to drag off into a long tanget about whether Peak Oil is even true or not. I've been down that road enough that it's just not worth pursuing.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Sarvis » Wed May 07, 2008 4:15 pm

*sniff* no reply to my post... :(
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby teflor the ranger » Wed May 07, 2008 5:03 pm

Gormal wrote:Corn + Magic = Gasoline


Expansion: Corn + Money, Energy, Greenhouse Gasses, Damage to our Environment, False Hope, Good Marketing = Gasoline
Last edited by teflor the ranger on Wed May 07, 2008 5:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby teflor the ranger » Wed May 07, 2008 5:06 pm

Ragorn wrote:very seldom do they seriously consider the quality of their food


Actually, this is one of their core considerations. McDonald's supply chain is one of the highest quality in the industry.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby teflor the ranger » Wed May 07, 2008 5:09 pm

Sarvis wrote:*sniff* no reply to my post... :(


That's because you're discussing an irrelevant product that's a bad metaphor for anything, considering it is a product sold in order to sell other products.

The Wii is like a cheese pizza, pickup only. Except possibly less useful.

(this is the post you wanted a response to, right?)
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby teflor the ranger » Wed May 07, 2008 5:21 pm

As a note, supply and demand are the primary market drivers across a worldwide commodity that is not only used everywhere, but is collected and processed in nearly all corners of the planet.

Market changes in gasoline specifically are most likely explained by simple supply and demand. Local, isolated market changes are most likely ascribed to either supply or demand or government influence.

Oil is nearly an ideal global economy. So ideal forces do the best job of observing, predicting, and explaining changes to the market.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Kifle » Wed May 07, 2008 6:26 pm

Gormal wrote:Corn + Magic = Gasoline


I'm going with Colbert. We need more magicians.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Kifle » Wed May 07, 2008 7:26 pm

Here's the Capitalism/Ethics Paper I had promised a few posts back. I think the section II applies primarily to this topic, but the entire paper is an interesting read and I think it would correct Corth's, and others', reliance on Adam Smith to justify their notions of what Capitalism was believed to be originally contrasted against what it is today. Also, there is an interesting section on the idea of profits in relation to the free-market and satisfying the liberties necessary to ensure that supply and demand can correctly encounter the natural price for any good.

Anyway, Corth, again I think you have recited Econ 101 very nicely in your posts, but the free market, especially in a globalized economy, is extremely more complicated than you're alluding to. That's why most economics degrees are not given to people who pass their supply/demand/elasticity exams in their first semester. I guess reading over this it seems a bit harsh, and I apologize for that...
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Kifle » Wed May 07, 2008 7:47 pm

Corth wrote:Sure. Free market = good. Price controls = bad.

Better?

A freaking summary for the guy who is going to sit around in some dank basement for years translating freaking schopenhaur. Feh :)


Lol, it's Husserl :) I read the whole thing, and you definately have a sound argument, but I don't believe that the free-market can be simplified in such a way and still conserve many of the important principles. Specifically, that your hypothetical product is an option rather than a reliance. Nobody in your hypothetical was reliant upon AFLAK, or whatever you called it. Therefore, they can either choose to pay the market-driven price or they can continue to use gasoline. In the real world, if you don't choose to pay the (arguable) market-driven price, the world is so depentant that they have to buy it anyway. In the real world, Corth (Exxon-Mobil) doesn't have the option of stopping their pumps (as it would completely cripple the world's economies). The last point (but not the last available) that I would like to cover is that in your hypothetical, you are comparing active consumerism to passive consumerism. I, or anyone else in the world for that matter, can not actively participate in the market-price of any good -- we are bound by certain things in this situation such as reliance. Reliance upon a specific good, in this case oil or energy in general, throws a giant monkey-wrench in the effective consumer driven natural price.

I know I said it was the last, but I would also like to point out that you didn't mention collusion or monopolistic/oligopolistic factions within a market -- which is the reality in the oil and energy market in this nation (and the world for that matter).

Edit: Ok, this is the last I swear. You also have to take into account that any small system can be more easily controlled by principles such as supply and demand; however, the system that we are talking about in reality is much different than your small-system hypothetical. I honestly don't have the formal economics education required to reallly get into it, but your hypothetical is like trying to use newtonian mechanics to explain quantum mechanics (as an analogy of size vs. controlling principles). Ok, done.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Teyaha » Wed May 07, 2008 8:52 pm

Ragorn wrote:
When McDonalds evaluates their business approach, very seldom do they seriously consider the quality of their food. .



this was the case up until..and i forget the year..they started to have serious financial issues couple years back. they lost two ceo's in a matter of six months.

the newest ceo realized what was driving us under - our procedures.

at that time there were two ways your food was made at mcdonalds:

1) made in real time - meat on grill, bun in toaster, meat flipped, buns dressed, meat on bun, sandwich assembled and wrapped/boxed, sandwich put into holding bin for 10 minutes. this entire process took 3-5 minutes, and if you had a special order you ended up waiting that long or longer

2) pseudo-real time - meat made in advance and held in cabinets. buns likewise made in advance adn held in cabinets. COLD bun dressed and sent down. warm meat put on bun. both q'd (industrial level microwave..styrofoam cups actually explode and microwave popcorn catches fire after 30 seconds) and put in holding bin for 10 minutes


number 1 had the tastiest sandwiches imo, but meant that i fyou had a special order it took a f'ng long time.

number 2 had the speediest delivery of sandwiches, but tasted like shit imo


this was all changed.

now meat is still prepared in advance, but with some rather stringent guidelines.

orders are made as they are ordered. it's like taco bell if you have ever watched them put your order together. order is made, bun is dropped into a toaster, bun is dressed adn sent down the line assembled, wrapped and given to the customer - no holding

this has actually increased the quality of the sandwiches, but now they are shooting themselves in the foot by adding more complicated menu items which is slowing this process down (if a fat dude comes in and orders six snack wraps it's a pain in the ass, they take forever to make and end up holding EVERYTHING behind them up). the menu is also starting to become a little bloated, with far too many products.

they have also moved from what was a beef fat and cotton seed oil, to vegetable oil (still with some beef fat), to pure vegetable oil and now canola oil for the fryers. this has however changed the flavor of the fries. those of us who were around for the original oil formula dont much care for the new stuff. it's sort of lost it's unique flavor, but it's substantially healthier


so yeah they have made an effort to increase the quality of the sandwiches they produce after they had some shitty years in the early part of this century and it has helped. the salads are great (although i miss the old chef's salad and 1000 island dressing..not healthy however) nowadays and top sellers especially during hot weather.

i'm pretty sure the reason why our one dollar items sell so stupidly well is because they are cheaper than a loaf of bread - by quite a freakin lot nowadays. sourdough is reaching eight bucks a roll where i live. one of the local bakeries' weekly delivery of 45,000 lbs of flour has gone from $8,000 per weekly delivery to $29,000 per weekly delivery since may of last year. that's over a 300% increase :(
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Ragorn » Wed May 07, 2008 9:00 pm

Very interesting writeup. I didn't know a lot of that.

Why does your dollar menu sell so well? Well, let me tell you the ONLY time I ever go to any fast food burger joint: When I feel like eating an entire meal for $3.12 and I don't give a shit about nutrition.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Gormal » Wed May 07, 2008 9:09 pm

I read somewhere the college textbooks were priced with free markets and supply/demand in mind. Discuss.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Sarvis » Thu May 08, 2008 12:30 pm

So, supply goes up AND prices go up today: http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/07/markets/oil_eia/index.htm?postversion=2008050715

So much for Supply & Demand?
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Corth » Thu May 08, 2008 1:01 pm

Prices can go up with supply so long as demand is increasing at a faster rate than supply. In this case a fair component of the increased demand is likely speculative demand.. which is demand nonetheless. Notice also how the article phrases the price increase "despite" an increase in supply, implying a certain amount of surprise at that phenomena.

So, Sarvis.. what do you think causes the price of oil to go up or down if not supply and demand?
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Teyaha » Thu May 08, 2008 1:15 pm

news dudes on tv said over a month ago the rising price of a barrel of oil was due more to oil speculators than anything else. dunno if that is or is not the case here, but they are now predicting $200 a barrel and eight dollars a gallon...soon
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Sarvis » Thu May 08, 2008 1:56 pm

Corth wrote:Prices can go up with supply so long as demand is increasing at a faster rate than supply. In this case a fair component of the increased demand is likely speculative demand.. which is demand nonetheless. Notice also how the article phrases the price increase "despite" an increase in supply, implying a certain amount of surprise at that phenomena.

So, Sarvis.. what do you think causes the price of oil to go up or down if not supply and demand?



How about a limited number of producers who collude to set prices?

Of course, if you think hard enough you can call just about anything "supply" or "demand." For instance if said colluders decide not to produce as much as they could in order to keep prices high, it's a "supply" problem. If market speculators buy shares expecting prices to increase it's a "demand" problem. If the gas company expecting record profits they raise prices because it's a "supply" problem.

I guess there's no room in the S&D worldview for simple greed. No company would ever raise their prices 9 cents because their competitor raised it 10. No company would ever use any piece of news in any country that had oil to claim supply problems and raise prices. And certainly no company would ever, EVER lower their prices once the event which triggered supply problems was resolved. That would just be silly!
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Ragorn » Thu May 08, 2008 3:40 pm

Supply and demand are reasons that prices change.

They are not the only reasons.

If they were, we wouldn't need antitrust laws to prevent the type of price manipulation that we're talking about in this thread.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Llaaldara » Thu May 08, 2008 6:57 pm

I guess..

McDonalds better start letting people use the drive thru on their bicycles?
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Teyaha » Thu May 08, 2008 7:10 pm

Llaaldara wrote:I guess..

McDonalds better start letting people use the drive thru on their bicycles?



i would just be happy if motorcycles and full sized scooters could trip the pad at the speaker so we could talk to them. they simply arent heavy enough
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Ragorn » Thu May 08, 2008 8:20 pm

Teyaha wrote:i would just be happy if motorcycles and full sized scooters could trip the pad at the speaker so we could talk to them. they simply arent heavy enough

If the riders keep eating at McDonalds, they will be.

Za-ZING.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby teflor the ranger » Fri May 09, 2008 12:50 am

Sarvis wrote:So, supply goes up AND prices go up today: http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/07/markets/oil_eia/index.htm?postversion=2008050715

So much for Supply & Demand?


Demand goes up even higher. It's nearing summer time in the northern hemisphere.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Vigis » Sun May 11, 2008 12:31 am

I got my Harley today. I just went from about $80 per week in my truck to about $15 per week on my bike. Winter might suck a little, but fuel prices (with the exception of last year) tend to dip during winter.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Teyaha » Sun May 11, 2008 3:22 am

might want to check local laws. some areas dont allow bikes out when it's raining or snowing (riding in the rain is near suicide anyway)
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Vigis » Sun May 11, 2008 3:57 am

I know the local laws. The reason I was saying that winter might suck is that I will go back to driving my F150 or my Impala, neither of which are as good on gas as the bike (obviously).

Also, riding in the rain doesn't bother me at all. It is just as safe as driving in rain if you take the proper precautions.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Vaprak » Sun May 11, 2008 3:40 pm

Riding cycle in rain isn't so bad with a windshield (and you hardly notice it with a full dress bike), as long as you don't hydroplane. I've been caught in a rainstorm before with my windshield off, and I must say that rain at 50-60mph tends to hurt. Alot.

Riding in winter isn't so bad either if the roads are clear. You can even get heated suits just like for snowmobile that plug into an accessory circuit on your cycle. I'd NEVER ride on ice though. That's dodgy stuff, nearly suicide.
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Re: Problems with Rising Fuel Costs

Postby Corth » Sun May 11, 2008 4:39 pm

Imho, riding a motorcycle at all is asking to become paralyzed or dead.. or other such nonsense.

But you can save a few bucks at the gas station!
Having said all that, the situation has been handled, so this thread is pretty much at an end. -Kossuth



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