Middle East / Egypt

[Kifle]

This thread never really got started properly, after the general consensus was revealed to be "I can't be arsed to figure out what's going on over there." So let's talk about porn instead, amirite?

Sounds good. I have a general idea of what's happening now, but sorry I don't feel I have anything to add to the discussion. I will talk about porn though :)

[Teflor Lyorian]

I think the manufactured crisis is whether or not democracy is ok when the people want religious law.

The truth is that democracy that demands religious law quickly falls away from being a democracy.

[Ragorn]

I think the manufactured crisis is whether or not democracy is ok when the people want religious law.

The truth is that democracy that demands religious law quickly falls away from being a democracy.

Actually, the people there want military rule. Either way, it's not compatible with democracy.

[Teflor Lyorian]

I think the manufactured crisis is whether or not democracy is ok when the people want religious law.

The truth is that democracy that demands religious law quickly falls away from being a democracy.

Actually, the people there want military rule. Either way, it's not compatible with democracy.

No, they just want that MORE than they want the dictator. You shouldn't confuse "the better of two evils" with the will of the people (democrats do this all the time).

[Corth]

Mubarak is leaving and the military will run the government for a period of time. Will be interesting to see how long and what ultimately replaces it. I think any way you look at it the Islamists will have more of a say in the government, which is a decidedly very bad thing - at least in the short term.

[kiryan]

I'm not so sure about the islamists...

Egypt is portrayed as a relatively secular country. In free and fair elections, I would imagine a hardline candidate would not succeed... at best... a moderate islamist would have to win and then a succession of steadily more radical islamists over several years (think Turkey, think Lebanon).

The military is the key bulkwark here. I assume the military is not co-opted by islamists yet. No matter how fast the political ideology changes, it will most likely take several years for the political structure to corrupt the military... if the military would stand for it. Imagine what would happen if GWB had appointed an outside Christian zealot as a general? Or imagine if he had appointed a random major to general? I don't think the military in this country would stand for it, I doubt the Egyptian one would either especially after seeing themselves as saving the last line of defense in this recent incident and in a more real way defending their territory during the last couple of decades

[kiryan]

hmm... I'm hearing that Egypt isn't as "secular" as is often portrayed in news articles... It is probably a relative designation.. its relatively secular as compared to other muslim countrlies.

There is apparently a 2009 pew report that would seem to indicate that we are headed for a very religious islamic government in Egypt. It includes overwhelming support for religion being a larger part of government, support for sharia law (specifically stoning) etc etc etc...

http://pewglobal.org/2010/12/02/muslims ... hezbollah/

The questions were asked of Muslims in Egypt. Its unclear to me what that means exactly although I did read in the past that your religion is a defined piece of data in Egypt. Your religion is "registered" with the government and there are even laws and penalties specific to your religion. For example, you can convert to Islam, but its either illegal or there is a fine for converting to another religion from islam. You go to differnet schools and stuff depending on whether you are muslim or christian.

[Corth]

We need to do something like 'Radio Free Europe' aimed at the middle east.. but with porn and dirty comedians.

[kiryan]

Iran is sending warships to Syria. its win win.

Scenario 1, Israel does nothing
Win, they get a military presence literally in Israel's back yard.

Scenario 2, Israel attacks the ships now or later
Win, another round of anti Israel condemnation at the UN
Win, all the "protests" taking place across the Middle East coalesce in solidarity with their "muslim" brothers
Win, middle eastern nations who are currently managing their protests successfully... lose control of them
Win, a flood of donor money to support muslim causes due to the latest attack on Islam
Win, Iran maintains the most stable government in the region allowing it to expand its influence

[kiryan]

Down past the first article...

For the first time EVER, the US is joining one of the anti Israel UN resolutions...

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/02 ... ions-cuts/

“…the Security Council… expresses its strong opposition to any unilateral actions by any party, which cannot prejudge the outcome of negotiations and will not be recognized by the international community, and reaffirms, that it does not accept the legitimacy of continued Israeli settlement activity, which is a serious obstacle to the peace process.”
-- Proposed resolution at the U.N. Security Council condemning Israeli settlements obtained by Foreign Policy magazine
The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations has proposed for the first time ever to join a coalition of Arab and European nations in condemning Israel.

A little on teh UN record... which something > 90% of UN resolututions condemn Israel (old data, but not i doubt its changed)

http://israelifacts.blogspot.com/2007/0 ... efied.html

A little more on Israel and the UN, also gives some good data about how we have "defended" them in the UN and how Israel votes with the US something like 92% of the time and are our most consistent "ally" on votes.

http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jso ... el_un.html

[kiryan]

Karl Rove:

coptic christians make up about 11-13 million of the 80 million egyptians (13% ish)

muslim brotherhood has only approximately 20-25% support at the polls in the past... some of those undoubtedly voted for the muslim brotherhood as a vote against mubarak.

maybe they have a legitimate chance of remaining secular after all.

[Corth]

Won't matter if they simply take over. Is Iran a truly democratic state? So far the chain of events seems to be following what happened in Iran after the Shah fell. Time will tell - we can only hope that it remains secular.

[kiryan]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110221/wl ... 0221212046


"Whoever in the Libyan army is able to shoot a bullet at Mr Kadhafi should do so," Qaradawi, an Egyptian-born cleric who is usually based in Qatar, told Al-Jazeera television.
...
The West accuses the cleric of supporting "terrorism" because he sanctioned Palestinian suicide attacks in Israel. Britain and the United States have refused to grant him entry visas.

The cleric, spiritual leader of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood and longtime resident of Qatar, heads the International Union for Muslim Scholars.

[Adriorn Darkcloak]

Nearly 4000 Muslims Attack Christian Homes in Egypt, Torch Church

[Teflor Lyorian]

The jihadists are coming! AAaaahhhhhhh. No, seriously, this happens pretty much every year in Africa.